Making Your Own Luck
One of my wife’s favorite expressions is, “Things happen for a reason.”
In her mind, nothing is ever left to chance or coincidence. The universe has a plan and everything that occurs is an extension of that plan. While I may not totally agree with the philosophy, I do think there are a lot of times when that expression happens to be valid.
Take buying a car, for instance.
Generally, before someone buys a car, a number of plans and processes are put into place. The individual may talk to friends and neighbors about their cars. Websites are visited. Maybe lists are started. Loan applications are submitted. Dealerships are visited. These are all the normal courses of action that one may take prior to visiting a dealership.
Car manufacturers and financial institutions are very aware of these steps as precursors to someone buying a car. And they have positioned their sales and marketing energies in a lot of these areas. There are other signs that could act as likely car-buying indicators, such as an increased bank account balance or Facebook posts about an accepted marriage proposal or a grainy ultrasound picture of a baby on the way. But what I’m curious about are the unseen links between what an individual does prior to purchasing a car.
I’d bet, that given the proper analysis, lenders would be able to find all kinds of clues that an individual is prepping to buy a car. I remember the Northeast blackout of 2003. About 50 million people lost power for the better part of a day across the Northeast U.S. and parts of Canada. Nine months after the blackout, there were a flurry of reports about a baby boom that occurred as a result of the blackout. The boom turned out to be a myth, but it presents an interesting correlation.
For example, how soon after paying off a student loan does someone buy a new car? Or how long after paying down credit card balances? How long does it take for a spike in car-buying activity after a 10-cent-per-gallon drop in gas prices? Twenty cents? Are there more cars sold in the days and weeks following a drop in the unemployment rate? Does the under- or over-performing of a favorite sports team lead to people buying more cars?
More data than ever is available to us to mine and analyze. The more data we analyze, the smarter we get. The smarter we get, the less likely we are to classify seemingly random events as coincidence. Maybe my wife is right after all.
