I have to admit, when I came up with my estimate last January for the AutoFinanceNews.net 2012 Car-Sales Crystal Ball Challenge, I was a bit hesitant. At the time, all indications pointed to a 13-million-unit year. My prediction, on the other hand, topped 14 million units (14,099,841, to be exact).
But the thought that vehicle sales would climb less than 10% just seemed too low. The economy was on the mend. Credit was readily accessible. There was a lot of pent-up demand. Cars were getting old. And high used-car prices would bump at least a portion of the buyer base into new cars.
Sure enough, we broke through the 14-million-unit barrier in 2012, closing out the year at 14,455,270 units, according to AutoFinanceNews.net’s tally. Sales exceeded 1 million units in all months but January, and total volume was 10.3% off the 16.1-million-unit SAAR recorded in 2007.
So where does that put us for 2013? Just days into the new year, industry experts were already boosting their sales expectations. First I saw estimates of 15.1 million units, then 15.3 million, then 15.4 million.
As for my official guess for the AutoFinanceNews.net 2013 Car-Sales Crystal Ball Challenge, I’m going to stay on the high side again. Drumroll, please… 15,944,163.
Post your guess in the Comment box below, and we’ll see who’s closest come January 2014.
So who offered the prediction that came closest to the actual SAAR in 2012? Well, you are reading her post.
We actually do get lease end customers asking how they can either negotiate with the lessor or if we can help them buy it. Most of the time we simply make the current payoff and sell it to a buyer the lessee has found to avoid double tax. I don’t see this as a volume service and I agree with Jeff about the upstream potential of the vehicle being sold prior to auction.
Marcie, it’s always good when the economy beats you by a few more sales. I am feeling optimistic as well, I definitely think that as consumer demand returns,and financing and leasing options are strong we should see……..16, 382,994, give or take a few.
I do like the enthusiasm of some of our fortune tellers on this forum but I’m going with a more modest forecast of 15,450,214 (~+7% vs 2012) give or take a car.
What a year for 2012! Apparently only Marci had the marekt intelligence to push the growth we realized in 2012. At Black Book we look for growth in 2013 but at about half the increase 2012 brought over 2011. We feel 15,298,765.Ricky Beggs
As we are seeing more new wholesale lenders entering the market, there has to be some belief that there is new market share to grab and not just the hope of taking it away from others already established. Also, all the major manufacturers are speeding up their refreshes in hopes of making consumers feel like their current car is already obsolete. As such, I’d predict roughly a 10% increase over last year’s 14.5. I’ll go with 15,973,023.
15,012,709
Thanks for the guesses, everyone. Keep them coming. It should be an interesting year — so many varying estimates here.