With Japanese manufacturing plants idled ― on the heels of a massive earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster ― it’s only a matter of time before the ripple effect hits the U.S. auto industry.
So far, the slowdown in parts production has yet to disrupt U.S. vehicle production. For now, automakers have enough parts in stock to build cars. But rolling blackouts through much of the country have resulted in limited power use. Also, plants that produce the Toyota Scion xB and xD models are near the brunt of the quake and tsunami damage. Not only that, but the Toyota Yaris and Prius hybrid, along with the Honda Fit and Insight hybrid, are assembled in Japan.
My guess: If the situation doesn’t improve in the next three or four weeks, U.S. dealers will start to feel the pinch of limited supply.
The Yaris is assembled by a Toyota subsidiary, Central Motors, in Miyagi Prefecture, the area most impacted by the quake/tsunami.
The following was received from Charles Lipton, who lives in Japan. My wife just returned from there Monday night in a state of shock.
Transportation is severely interrupted and there are many collapsed
bridges and impassable main roads. There are just bigger stories than
the shipping problems and only a certain number of broadcast hours
during the day.
Just some personal observations:
From the Kashima area of southeastern Ibaraki it is still impossible to
reach Tokyo by kosoku or rail. With some knowledge of local
roads, a programmable navi system, and a lot of patience, it is
possible to reach an on-ramp 50-odd km away but reports are that
it takes up to four hours to make the trip that used to take
about 40 minutes.
Bridges are out all over the coastal area of the Prefecture. If you look
at a map of the northern Chiba / southern Ibaraki coast we have an
extensive waterway network that must be crossed in order to reach other
places. All of the “new” bridges constructed at the time of the World
Cup are gone — Kashima Shin-Jingu-bashi is closed, although the
decades-old Jingu-bashi it “replaced” is open to up to ten tonnes, the
Rokko-ohashi (reputedly Nukaga-giins personal pork barrel project) is a
total loss. The postwar one lane + passing turnout Rokko-bashi at Fuda
is operational while the new two-plus lane bridge being constructed next
to it is now in four pieces.
According to Ibaraki Kenkei, trains and kousoku are open from Tokyo
only as far as Narita and Kashiwa. No heavy truck traffic is being yet
permitted on the Tokandou or Jouban from central Chiba or Saitama
northward.
In order to travel north, into the teeth of the earthquake and reactor
meltdown, kousoku and rail access is non-existent. All other roads I
personally have tried to use to travel to Tsukuba, Mito (and points
north including Iwaki and Hitachi) are a mess. I have been able to
get through on a 250cc off-road motorcycle The same four-lane Oarai
Bypass that I convinced three shirobai to escort a 20-vehicle convoy
down at midnight last Friday night has now been declared impassable and
is closed indefinitely. The only “major” North-South “artery” that is
running uninterrupted up and down the entire length of the Prefecture is
Kendou 18, a nominally two-lane road which runs up the eastern side of
Kitaura through Hitachinaka and Iwaki.
Essential equipment movement heading north seems to be mostly made up of
antiquated rotary wing aircraft bearing Jietai markings. I have not
seen so many Hueys (mostly H- and N-models) and Chinooks in one place
since I took Mr. Nixon’s Youth-in-Asia Tour forty years ago.
In our area, farmers are giving away carrots, potatoes, cabbage,
hakusai, asparagus, sweet potatoes, gobou, ginger, maetake, and
garlic. We’re helping a local dairy farmer who cannot sell his
production distribute bottles of raw milk to local houses. There is no
gasoline.
—
Charles Lipton
I am surprised that no one has referenced the FACT act Risk-based prcing rules that went into effect on January 1, 2011. Are there no consumer credit people aware of it? While it does require the lender to prove the general risk economics of the pricing (my contention is that it abuses the high risk customers far more than is necessary). It does require the lenders (or auto dealers as a proxy for the lenders) to tell people that they are in a higher risk tier. It does require the lender to develop some basis for placing the customer into a high-risk pool. So there is data collection going on that could allow transparency if the lender wanted to provide it. Perhaps readers could comment on why they would not want to provide it?