I’m just hours back from the Auto Finance Summit, and while I’ll need some time to digest the waterfall of information at the conference, on first blush my conclusion from all the discussions was this: auto finance is back and is only getting better.
From the initial presentations on economic trends favoring — dare I say — far higher car sales in 2011 to the prognosis for a jump of leasing next of more than 10% compared to 2010, there was few, if any, dire diagnoses for auto finance.
The only real point of concern is competition. You can hear the footsteps of looser underwriting everywhere. That those footsteps are being heard so soon after the calamitous credit crisis is jarring to say the least.
But that’s just one negative against a slew of positives. Finally, after all these months, executives could proclaim that the worst is behind the industry and that the auto finance sector has dodged not a bullet, but an intercontinental ballistic missile. Hear that noise? That’s the collective sigh of relief sounded at the Auto Finance Summit this week.
It’s still the more profitable decision if you can work through a slow payer (i.e.-not lose half the principal) providing the lender isn’t just avoiding recognizing the loss of course. It will be interesting to see if lenders start loosening LTVs under the faulty expectation that used vehicle values will stay high.
I’m still trying to figure out why independent lenders want to compete in leasing with the OEMs, who have always had their own death wish, while staying away from pre-owned vehicle leasing where the depreciation curve has flattened out.
Someone please explain it to me!
Strauss is always good. I especially liked the leasing workshop.
I am amazed at how calm everyone is about the ballistic missile we have missed. I wonder if there is a true appreciation for the people who made the tough decisions that have allowed us to have dodged it. Or do we just take it for granted?
I think the the term “looser underwriting” in this climate is somewhat akin to the term “growing pygmy.” It’s a matter of persepective.