SAAR outpaces early forecasts

Auto sales in the U.S. beat initial expectations for 2023 as the seasonally adjusted annual rate increased year over year on pent-up consumer demand. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) clocked in at 15.5 million units for the full year, above early forecasts of 15 million units, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The SAAR in 2023 rose 12.4% YoY, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association . Delavan, Wis.-based Kunes Auto Group had sales come in about as expected in 2023 with some storefronts outperforming projections, Chief Operating Officer Scott Kunes told Auto Finance News . The group is comprised of 28 car dealerships and 14 recreational vehicle dealerships. “We did better than we expected as a whole,” Kunes said. “We were expecting a downturn in quarter four, but sales held strong. I attribute this to pent-up consumer demand. We did have a lot of consumers that had been waiting for the supply to come back.” Kunes Auto Group finished 2023 with 9,125 new-unit sales, coming in below its expectation of about 10,000 units but within the desired range, he said. Import brands performed strongly across the board at the dealership group, while consumer demand was strong for General Motors vehicles , and lower-priced Ford Motor models were in “good demand,” Kunes said. “Most consumers are payment conscious, so it pushed the demand on lower-dollar vehicles much higher,” he said. General Motors led U.S. sales across all OEMS in 2023, with sales up by 14% YoY to 2.6 million units on the heels of “strong demand,” according to a release from the manufacturer. Its market share increased by 0.3 percentage points to an estimated 16.3%, according to the OEM. Ford Motor’s sales ticked up 7.1% YoY to 2 million units at yearend 2023, marking the manufacturer’s best sales total since 2020, according to a company release. Toyota Motor North America lead all foreign OEMs, with 2.2 million units sold in the U.S. last year, an increase of 6.6% YoY on a volume basis, according to the company. December SAAR up 17% YoY The light-vehicle sales SAAR was 15.8 million units in December, up 16.8% YoY, and above the initial Bloomberg median consensus in December of 15.5 million units, according to the BEA. Retail sales are estimated to account for 13.5 million units of the December SAAR, according to a research note from JPMorgan using J.D. Power estimates. JPMorgan expects sales to increase this year, but at a lower rate than in 2023, according to the note. Growth will be “marked by lower trim levels, lower net pricing and more fulsome inventory levels, all underpinned by a still-stretched, but not broken, consumer,” according to the note. Cox Automotive projects 2024 new-vehicle sales to finish the year at 15.7 million units, Charlie Chesbrough , senior economist at Cox, said Jan. 8 during the company’s 2024 industry insights webcast. “This may be too pessimistic given the improving economic outlook , but we are concerned that after a year of strong gains, additional growth from here will prove more challenging,” he said. Early-bird registration is now available for the second annual Auto Finance Summit East , which gathers lenders, dealers and fintech innovators in an event designed to bring the power of technology to a cross-section of industry players. Early-bird pricing ends March 15. Visit AutoFinance.Live to learn more.

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