North American RV registrations down 25% YoY

Motorhome values declined and towable values rose again in February with recreational vehicle retail registrations falling as the market continues to slow. The average motorhome selling price clocked in at $62,690 in February, down 7.1% sequentially and down 17.9% year over year, according to Black Book . The decline follows an 8.1% sequential dip in January, after value increases in December and November . [caption id="attachment_57337115" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Courtesy of Black Book[/caption] Auction volume on motorhomes increased 5.6% month over month in February, with an average model year of 2011 as dealers send more units to auction ahead of the spring season, Eric Lawrence , Black Book’s principal analyst of specialty vehicles, told Auto Finance News. Meanwhile, towable values — including fifth wheels and travels — rose for the third consecutive month, with February’s average selling price of $21,077, up 7.8% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. Towable auction volume also increased 0.1% MoM, with an average model year of 2018. An uptick in auction volume could have contributed to increased values, Lawrence said . [caption id="attachment_57337116" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Courtesy of Black Book[/caption] “RVs have gone up in value from the manufacturer and dealer cost side over the last several years,” Lawrence said. “Everything costs more than it did a few years ago and you have a larger percentage of more expensive vehicles in the mix. That’s probably accounting for why we’re seeing what we’re seeing, as opposed to a dramatic market change.” Dealers also have many unsold model-year 2022 RVs, with model-year 2023 RVs ordered and some already arriving on dealer lots, Lawrence said. The slowdown in new units sold is driving some model year prices down. “In cases where you have many model years that are still new on your lot, you’re going to have some pressure to get rid of the oldest of those new models, which would be the 2022s,” he said. “If the 2022s get pushed down, then that’s going to push down the model year 2021s. ... When we see the numbers going up, that doesn’t necessarily jibe with what we’re seeing on the new side, so I think it’s just an age issue that we’re looking at [in used RVs].” Auction volume is going to continue to increase as trade-in vehicles bought during the pandemic are making their way to the market, Lawrence said. “You’ve got more people with trade-ins and you have some units that were bought during the pandemic that may not be the exact right unit for that person’s taste, but they still like RVing — that ‘I want a bigger one or I want a smaller one.’ You're going to start seeing a lot more trades, which will equate to more auction volume and more auction numbers,” he said. Registrations, shipments continue decline February North American RV retail registrations declined 25% YoY to 25,102 units, while registrations declined 7% when compared with 2019’s pre-pandemic data, according to preliminary data from Statistical Surveys (SSI). Motorhome registrations were down 20% and towable registrations were down 26% YoY, according to the SSI, with motorhome registrations also down 3% and towable registrations down 8% from 2019’s pre-pandemic numbers. February RV industry shipments increased 22% sequentially but declined 54% YoY to 24,903, according to data from the RV Industry Association . Towable shipments fell 58% YoY and motorhome shipments declined 16% YoY. Shipments declined 32% compared with 2019. The continuing decline in shipments is an indication that manufacturers have caught up with dealer inventories, Lawrence said. “The shipment reports coming out from the manufacturers are significantly lower than they were last year, which tells us that they're caught up, and now they’re going to ship RVs to replace the ones that were sold, as opposed to restocking and getting back to a normal level,” he said. “You're going to see a lot more seasonality come into play in the RV industry.” Production rates are also expected to normalize in March, Gerrick Johnson, analyst at BMO Capital Markets , said. “We expect that production rates will be higher MoM in March given more production days, though still lower than historically,” Johnson said in a BMO release. “We expect more normalized production in April.” Auto Finance Summit East, Auto Finance News’ new spring event, is set for May 10-12 at the JW Marriott Nashville, Tenn. To learn more about the 2023 spring event and register, visit autofinance.live/afs-east .

North American RV registrations down 25% YoY

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