Concerns around the fallout of the novel coronavirus have pushed the SAAR down, according to new reports from TrueCar.
“ALG projects that in a quick recovery scenario, where the economy and auto industry recover by the end of April 2020 back to levels prior to COVID-19 disruption, new vehicle sales will reach 16.4 million, down -500,000 vehicles or -2.9% from ALG’s initial 2020 forecast and down -3.8% from 2019 sales,” today’s report stated.
Given a prolonged scenario, ALG predicts “that new light vehicles sales will reach 14.5 million, down 2.4 million or 14.2% from ALG’s initial 2020 forecast and down 14.9% from 2019 sales.”
“In the rapidly moving, highly volatile global economic environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, we believe it’s prudent to provide a revised range of auto industry projections to new vehicle sales for 2020. The range is based on various scenarios provided by expert third party forecasts of macro-economic impacts from the Coronavirus outbreak,” said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for ALG.
“A quick recovery by the end of April would lead to roughly half a million lost sales, while a prolonged slow down through the end of the year would result in a nearly 15% year-over-year sales decline in 2020. While forecasts are changing day to day, our current likely scenario has new vehicle sales for 2020 landing in the mid 15-million-unit range.”
The market has been reeling today, dropping 13% since trading opened, the second-worst day in the index’s history, according to the Associated Press.
