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OEMs could face higher capital costs as default risks climb

Moody’s: Probability of default for U.S. automakers exceeds 10% 

Truth Headlam

U.S. automakers in 2026 could face higher borrowing costs as the probability of defaulting on their debt obligations rose in 2025 amid market volatility.  The probability of default, or PD, for U.S. automakers sat at 12.67% as of yearend 2025, according to a Jan. 27 report from Moody’s Analytics Asset Management Research.   Moody’s PD is a forward-looking credit measure that estimates the chance that an OEM can meet its debt obligations over the next year based on a combination of market information and […]

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