As automakers are expected to announce 2012’s auto sales totals throughout the day today, some analysts predict sales this year could reach more than 15 million units. New-vehicle sales last year are expected to hit 14.4 million.
R.L. Polk and Co., a Southfield, Mich.-based automotive forecasting firm, anticipates 2013’s new-vehicle registrations will climb to 15.3 million. Though registrations are a key indicator of car sales, they tend to lag slightly, so new vehicles sold could potentially hit 15.4 million.
Anthony Pratt, director of forecasting at R.L. Polk, expects a lot of attention and money spent on large pickup trucks. The truck segment has declined the past five years, but an increase could be on the horizon as General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and Toyota Motor Corp. unveil new models or improve existing ones in the next 18 to 24 months.
The midsize-car market should also continue leading the industry as 40-plus new cars are expected to be introduced in the U.S. in 2013, more than doubling last year’s introductions.
Looking past the coming 12 months, 2014’s new-vehicle sales could exceed 16 million units, a total last seen in 2007.
In response to Jeff’s question “how many lessees REALLY want their car past lease end?”, it was my experience during my remarketing days with MBCC and CF that there’s a significant number of people who are interested in retaining their vehicle. However, as the gap between market value and residual value grew so did the challenge of mitigating our risk by keeping these cars from coming back.
Maybe his model allows consumers to have the vehicles purchased on their behalf through upstream channels as well as through the traditional auction lane. But he is going to have auction reps purchase the vehicles on behalf of the consumer? I would imagine that will put the auctions at odds with the consignors…that could get messy!