Wholesale volume expected to dip as fleets manage supply

Dealers expect a short-term dip in wholesale used-vehicle inventory in December as fleet management companies hold onto cars longer and turn to direct-to-consumer sales for off-fleet vehicles, contributing to a decline in auction volume. However, auto market experts say fleet supply dynamics will have a minimal impact on overall vehicle pricing. Auction inventory “could dip in December due to rental fleets keeping current model years in fleet longer ,” Scott Kunes , chief operating officer and managing director of Delavan, Wis.-based Kunes Auto Group , told Auto Finance News. Wholesale volume is expected to drop approximately 1% by yearend 2025 before ticking up in 2026, Jeremy Robb , interim chief economist for Cox Automotive , told AFN . Fleet companies have “needed to adapt to extending asset life where possible” as vehicle prices rise, Kevin Chan , director of product marketing at fleet management software firm Fleetio , told AFN . In October, the average transaction price for new vehicles was $49,766, up 2.1% year over year, according to a Nov. 12 report from Kelley Blue Book . At the end of October, the average used-car price was $25,945, up 2% YoY and 0.2% month over month, according to a Nov. 14 Cox Auto report. Selling direct to consumers Lower wholesale depreciation in 2025 has allowed fleet companies “to retail out many vehicles in ways they haven’t in the past,” including direct-to-consumer sales, Robb said. In fact, rental company Hertz allows consumers to buy its vehicles online following the launch of omnichannel capabilities in partnership with Cox Auto in October. Innovations in disposal methods are driven by the need to save money, Robb said. Fleet companies “have pretty slim margins, so any way they can cut costs [such as] auction fees ... helps reduce costs and losses, and sometimes helps them become more profitable,” he said. Future of wholesale volume, vehicle prices The growth in direct-to-consumer off-fleet car sales will continue to limit the flow of used vehicles into the wholesale space, Robb said. However, changes in disposal methods are not expected to significantly affect the price of used vehicles since new-vehicle prices and consumer demand have a greater impact, he said. Off-lease volume is also expected to contribute to stable wholesale volume in 2026, Robb said. “With the increase in off-lease maturities next year, we should likely see overall wholesale volume at least maintain pace with this year,” he said, adding that manufacturers may be more aggressive selling to fleet and rental companies if retail sales dip as expected next year. “The biggest thing for fleet and rental next year stems on how strong the consumer will be,” Robb said. “If retail [seasonally adjusted vehicle sales] rates are lower, then typically you see more fleet and rental sales on the new-vehicle side. If that occurs, you will also see more impact on the used market in terms of price as fleet and rental companies have more product to dispose of.”

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