GM, Chrysler 'Viability' Plans -- Reactions

General Motors and Chrysler LLC both submitted their government-mandated "viability" plans yesterday. The upshot is both need more money -- lots of it -- even as GMAC will generate $1.1 billion of cash flow to GM. (Chrysler did not appear to indicate how much cash flow Chrysler Financial specifically is providing to the corporation.) Below are the plans available for download. I hope your reactions in comments to this forum follow.

Here are some of the salient points related to auto finance:

GM on GMAC

In December 2008, the Federal Reserve approved GMAC‘s application to become a Bank Holding Company and the U.S. Department of the Treasury made a $5 billion TARP investment in GMAC. This was an important and positive development not just for GMAC, but as well for General Motors given the role GMAC plays in the everyday conduct of the Company's business. This action, as well as GMAC‘s successful bond exchange, leaves GMAC significantly better positioned to be competitive over the long-term. As a result of these developments, at year end 2008 GM and GMAC were able to launch special financing programs for select 2008 and 2009 models.

Nevertheless, the ongoing lack of liquidity in credit markets continues to create difficulties for GMAC in securing funding for its automotive assets. Even programs such as TALF have not provided a funding benefit to GMAC since participation requires that securities be rated AAA, and rating agencies are not willing to provide the required rating level while GM‘s situation remains unresolved. Should the rating agencies continue to take this view, even after GM submits its Viability Plan, and potentially receives Federal Government support, the continued lack of funding will have a substantial negative impact on GMAC‘s ability to provide both retail and wholesale funding in the U.S. and Canada, and consequently on GM‘s ability to sell cars and trucks in these markets.

GM on Why Bankruptcy Will Hurt GMAC

Consumer confidence is essential to the Company’s future success. For most consumers, the purchase of a vehicle represents their second largest expenditure (after housing). Consumers view resale value and the assured availability of warranty coverage and long-term parts and service as critical inputs to their purchase decision. It is the judgment of the Company that a bankruptcy filing would substantially, if not completely, erode consumers’ confidence in GM’s ability to deliver on those requirements. The consumer, with a choice of a comparable product backed by a manufacturer operating outside bankruptcy, is substantially less likely to opt for the bankruptcy tainted product. The resulting deep and precipitous slide in the Company’s revenue would endanger not only the Company’s viability, but that of countless of its dealers and suppliers, which are in turn relied upon by other manufacturers and the public. In addition, a GM bankruptcy would threaten GMAC’s ability to fund itself in the capital markets, impairing GMAC’s capacity to provide wholesale and retail financing essential to support the viability of GM.

GM on GMAC's Floorplan Financing

The second key impact in a GM bankruptcy relates to GMAC and its wholesale credit lines to the Company’s dealers. A GM bankruptcy may constitute an Event of Default in one or more of GMAC’s independent credit facilities. GMAC might also experience indirect effects of a GM bankruptcy which triggered provisions in existing facilities or resulting in the inability to renew existing facilities. Therefore, absent some form of additional support for GMAC, General Motors believes that GMAC would cease wholesale dealer financing for all but the most creditworthy retailers. This would necessarily shift substantially the entire burden of wholesale financing to the Company, in turn increasing the size of any DIP funding facility.

Assumption on Which Chrysler Is Basing Its Request for $7 Billion of Bridge Financing

Chrysler assumed that Chrysler Financial would be viable and could have adequate financial capacity to support our wholesale shipments and retail sales assumptions (we need a financial company solution to be viable).

Chrysler's Assessment of the Current Financing Market

The lack of financing availability has affected automotive dealers in two ways:

• Lack of retail financing availability has directly reduced their consumer sales; and
• Lack of floor plan financing has reduced all dealers’ ability to order new cars to hold in
inventory.

Both of these factors combine to lower Chrysler’s sales.

Tags: chrysler, gm

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It is unclear to me how the joint ownership of GMAC with Cerberus will effect things. Chrysler seems to be on the most unsure footing.

I think Saturn represents a unique opportunity because of its dealer network, based on regions rather than individual markets. Saturn has never had the image or product to sustain itself. Consequently the franchise granting concept of Saturn has not been able to prove itself one way or the other.

It is not clear to me how GM, or any OEM, can just shed dealers or close a division. Small business owners made significant investments in real estate, fixtures, special tools, etc. based on representations, verbally and in writing, from the OEM. State law offers significant protection for those dealers. NADA is a formidable lobbying entity on behalf of dealers. It cost GM over a billion dollars to get rid of Oldsmobile 15 years ago. The cost today would be much higher. Attorneys have to be salivating over this situation.
Viability through bankruptcy seems to me to be the way to go for GM.

Already, the government has granted the automaker $13.4 billion in loans. And in this latest plan, submitted yesterday, GM asks for as much as $16.6 billion more for the near term, for a grand [though probably not final] total of $30 billion. An out-of-court bankruptcy, as outlined by GM, would require $33 billion of government support.

Here’s how I see it: The government is already picking up the tab for the restructuring, so why not eliminate some liabilities while we’re at it? According to GM’s plan, a prepackaged Chapter 11 filing would reduce liabilities by about $30 billion.

I recognize that a bankruptcy filing will result in the loss of tens — or hundreds — of thousands of industry jobs, but it seems that GM and its suppliers are already headed down that path. Face it, the industry is contracting severely. Vehicle sales dropped 20% last year, and they’re on track to fall another 20% this year. GM sales in January plunged 49%, year-over-year.

I venture to suggest that a prepackaged bankruptcy might actually restore consumers’ confidence in the automaker, rather than erode it. Maybe GM’s argument for *avoiding* bankruptcy is actually the reason to *pursue* it. In other words, maybe consumers aren’t buying GM vehicles now because they are unsure of the company’s future. From their perspective, they see a company that has lost billions of dollars quarter after quarter and is doling out healthcare benefits to one million employees, dependents, and retirees. A bankruptcy filing would cap those expenses and create an impression of stemming the losses.
Here's some food for thought: GM posted 4Q earnings today -- 4Q losses, rather. The automaker lost a grand total of $30.9 billion last year. That translates to a loss of $84.7 million A DAY!
That could pay for quite a few flights on private jets.

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